© РИА Новости Илья Питалев
РИА Рейтинг – 23 июн. Ситуация в российском банковском секторе по итогам мая, согласно опубликованной статистике Банка России, оказалась достаточно хорошей. В частности, по итогам месяца наблюдалась положительная динамика объема активов как в номинальном, так и в реальном выражении. Номинальный объем активов за месяц увеличился не очень сильно – на 85 миллиардов рублей или на 0,1%. Для сравнения, в апреле текущего года активы выросли на те же 0,1%, а в марте наблюдалось снижение на 0,2%. Таким образом, май стал вторым подряд месяцем с положительной динамикой активов в номинальном выражении, чего не наблюдалось как в 2017 году, так и во второй половине 2016 года. При этом активы в реальном выражении по итогам месяца выросли на 0,3%, что уже стало третьим приростом активов в текущем году. В целом с начала года (январь-май) активы в номинальном выражении сократились на 0,9% или на 0,7 триллиона рублей до 79,4 триллиона рублей на 1 июня 2017 года, а в реальном выражении наблюдался рост на 1,1%.
Кредитование экономики по итогам мая, как и динамика активов, характеризовалось ростом в номинальном и в реальном выражении. В частности, кредитование экономики в номинальном выражении за месяц выросло на 0,2% (корпоративное кредитование увеличилось на 0,1%, а розничное кредитование выросло на 0,7%). В реальном же выражении кредитование экономики в мае увеличилось на 0,4% за счет роста корпоративного кредитования на 0,3%, тогда как розничное кредитование с учетом переоценки показало те же +0,7%. В целом же с начала года кредитование экономики снизилось на 0,7% (+0,9% без учета валютной переоценки) из-за снижения кредитования юридических лиц на 1,7% (+0,4%) и роста кредитования физических лиц на 2,4% (+2,4%). Динамика кредитования пока остается относительно слабой, что соответственно сказывается на динамике активов. При этом обращает на себя внимание неплохая динамика в реальном выражении. Кроме того, вышедшая очень хорошая майская макростатистика, может указывать на то, что уже в ближайшие месяцы кредитование экономики, вероятно, будет показывать еще более высокие темпы роста как в корпоративном сегменте кредитования, так и в розничном кредитовании. Помимо этого ослабление рубля в июне должно привести к положительной валютной переоценке. Эксперты РИА Рейтинг ожидают, что в июне кредитование может показать уже значительный рост как в номинальном, так и в реальном выражении.
В части привлечения средств клиентов в мае российским банкам удалось показать достаточно неплохой результат. По итогам месяца средства корпоративных клиентов выросли на 1,5%, тогда как в предыдущие три месяца наблюдалось достаточно сильное снижение. Стоит отметить, что за последние 12 месяцев лишь по итогам четырех месяцев наблюдался прирост средств корпоративных клиентов. В части вкладов населения по итогам мая динамика была положительной, но почти нулевой – средства населения выросли лишь на 4 миллиарда рублей или на 0,01%. При этом фактор валютной переоценки внес незначительные изменения в динамику средств клиентов по итогам месяца, в частности, без учета его влияния средства корпоративных клиентов и вклады населения выросли на 1,8% и 0,2% соответственно. В целом за январь-май вклады населения выросли на 0,3% (+1,9% без учета валютной переоценки), тогда как средства корпоративных клиентов снизились на 1,3% (+1,6%).
Объем прибыли банков в мае 2017 года несколько снизился относительно предыдущих месяцев, но по-прежнему остается на достаточно высоком уровне. По итогам мая прибыль банковского сектора составила 100 миллиардов рублей, против 215 миллиардов рублей и 127 миллиардов в апреле и марте 2017 года соответственно. В целом же с начала года (январь-май) суммарная прибыль российских банков составила 653 миллиарда рублей, против 235 миллиардов годом ранее. При этом за последние 12 месяцев банкам суммарно удалось заработать 1,3 триллиона рублей. Объем прибыли на скользящем отрезке (за 12 месяцев) имеет тенденцию к росту на протяжении последних 14 месяцев. Май текущего года стал семнадцатым подряд прибыльным месяцем для российского банковского сектора, а за последние 22 месяца российские банки были прибыльными по итогам 21 месяца.
Снижение объема прибыли в мае 2017 года относительно результатов предыдущих месяцев является следствием заметного роста резервов на возможные потери. По итогам мая было сформировано резервов на 72 миллиарда рублей. При этом за последние 12 месяцев среднемесячный объем сформированных резервов составил лишь 7 миллиардов рублей. В целом потенциал роста прибыли у российских банков, по мнению экспертов РИА Рейтинг, пока далеко не исчерпан, поэтому в среднесрочной перспективе можно ожидать новых рекордов. Согласно обновленному прогнозу РИА Рейтинг, наиболее вероятно, что прибыль российского банковского сектора по итогам года 2017 году может быть в диапазоне 1,4 – 1,5 триллиона рублей.
Ситуация с отзывом банковских лицензий в мае-июне (по состоянию на 22 июня) значительно улучшилась относительно предыдущих месяцев. Так за май-июнь принудительно лицензий лишились лишь 9 банков и НКО, из которых три лишились их добровольно. При этом суммарный объем активов банков, принудительно лишенных лицензии в мае-июне, по оценкам экспертов РИА Рейтинг, не превысил даже 4 миллиардов рублей. Для сравнения, активы лишенных лицензий банков в марте-апреле были более чем в 100 раз больше, во многом за счет отзыва лицензии у банка из ТОП-50 – Татфондбанка. В целом с начала года, по состоянию на 22 июня, было отозвано 35 лицензий у банков и НКО, в том числе десять кредитные организации лишилось лицензии добровольно.
РИА Рейтинг – это универсальное рейтинговое агентство медиагруппы МИА «Россия сегодня», специализирующееся на оценке социально-экономического положения регионов РФ, экономического состояния компаний, банков, отраслей экономики, стран. Основными направлениями деятельности агентства являются: создание рейтингов регионов РФ, банков, предприятий, муниципальных образований, страховых компаний, ценных бумаг, другим экономических объектов; комплексные экономические исследования в финансовом, корпоративном и государственном секторах.
МИА «Россия сегодня» – международная медиагруппа, миссией которой является оперативное, взвешенное и объективное освещение событий в мире, информирование аудитории о различных взглядах на ключевые события. РИА Рейтинг в составе МИА «Россия сегодня» входит в линейку информационных ресурсов агентства, включающих также: РИА Новости, Р-Спорт, РИА Недвижимость, Прайм, ИноСМИ. МИА «Россия сегодня» лидирует по цитируемости среди российских СМИ и наращивает цитируемость своих брендов за рубежом. Агентство также занимает лидирующее положение по цитируемости в российских социальных сетях и блогосфере.
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